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Employment Picture 'Murky'
2/5/2010

There were 20,000 fewer jobs available in January yet unemployment went down to 9.7%. This mathematical curiosity is actually signaling that many workers have not only exhausted unemployment benefits but, just as importantly, their hope of finding work.

From The Washington Post:

The unemployment rate showed a surprisingly steep decline in January even as the nation continued to shed jobs, the government said Friday, in a report that suggested the labor market picture remains mixed.

Employers slashed 20,000 net jobs in January, the Labor Department said, compared to the 13,000 gain that economists had forecast. November and December results were revised down slightly. But the biggest surprise was the unemployment rate, which declined to 9.7 percent; analysts had expected it to be unchanged at 10 percent.

The two sets of numbers are based on different studies, with job gain and loss numbers coming from a survey of employers and the unemployment based on a survey of American households. In the long run, the numbers track together, but in the short run they can diverge. That's what happened in January, suggesting a murky picture for the labor market.  More on employment here.

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